Market Efficiency and Returns to Simple Technical Trading Rules: New Evidence from U.S. Equity Market and Chinese Equity Markets

Market efficiency and the returns to simple technical trading rules: new evidence from U.S. equity market and Chinese equity markets

Numerous studies in the finance literature have investigated technical analysis to determine its validity as an investment tool. This study is an attempt to explore whether some forms of technical analysis can predict stock price movement and make excess profits based on certain trading rules in markets with different efficiency level. To avoid using arbitrarily selected 26 trading rules as did...

Equity, Efficiency and Increasing Returns

Growing Pains: International Instability and Equity Market Returns

We use the ratio of growth in global military expenditures to gross domestic product (GDP) to capture ex ante expectations of political instability and explore the relation between this measure and returns. In a standard global asset pricing framework with 44 countries, this measure helps to explain cross-country return differences. Furthermore, emerging countries have greater exposure to inter...

Stock market volatility and equity returns: Evidence from a two-state Markov-switching model with regressors

Article history: Received 23 August 2011 Received in revised form 16 April 2012 Accepted 19 April 2012 Available online 5 May 2012 This paper proposes a two-state Markov-switching model for stock market returns in which the state-dependent expected returns, their variance and associated regime-switching dynamics are allowed to respond to market information. More specifically, we apply this mode...

Financial Market Design and Equity Premium: Electronic versus Floor Trading

We assemble the dates of announcement and actual introduction of electronic trading by the leading exchange of 120 countries to examine the long term and medium term impact of automation. Estimates from dividend growth model as well as international CAPM suggest a significant decline in expected returns after the introduction of electronic trading in the world’s equity markets, especially in th...